Signal · 13 November 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) · downside breakout

цена на 4,9 ATR ниже средней за 50 дней, RSI 25 — сильная перепроданность

waitBybit · crypto

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BTCUSDT

Technical analysis

Nov 13 close: $68.280.8 (-4.4% on the day). That is 3.9% below the low of the previous 20 days ($71.072.5). Turnover is 2.0 times the 20-day average: the move is backed by trading.

Over the month: -16.4%. The price is below the 20-day average ($76.673.3) and below the 50-day average ($80.584.6).

The price is 4.9 average daily ranges (ATR) below the 50-day average, RSI(14) 25: the market is oversold, and a rebound often follows.

The breakout is in the direction of the downtrend: selling pressure persists.

The same signal is on OKX.

Fundamental analysis

News on bitcoin — CoinDesk, Nov 13: «Bitcoin plunges to $68.000 as Anthropic IPO frenzy adds to market jitters».

News on bitcoin — CoinDesk, Nov 13: «Bitcoin hits 12-week low as dollar rallies on interest-rate outlook, liquidations top $1.6 billion».

What to watch next

Confirmation: two consecutive closes below $71.072.5. Invalidation: a close above $71.072.5. Nearest reference levels: 20-day average $76.673.3 and 20-day high $81.967.0.

Recommendation

Wait for a rebound to the level: the price is 4.9 ATR below the 50-day average, RSI 25: deeply oversold; it is too late to sell into the move. Plan: sell via the Bybit perpetual future BTCUSDT, low confidence.

Entry and exit

Entry: place the order now: limit in the $69.535.6–$70.163.1 zone (calculated from $69.849.4) until Nov 18. Stop: $72.359.1 (1.0 ATR from entry). Target 1: $64.830.0 (risk/reward 1:2): close half and move the stop to breakeven. Target 2: $62.320.3 (1:3). If target 1 is hit before entry, skip the trade. Time exit: 10 days after entry (around Nov 24).

Example with money

Capital $1.000 (≈ 82.400 ₽), risk per signal 0.66% ($6.60) — group limit for crypto and crypto-company stocks is 2% across 3 signals. Sell 0.002 BTC (step 0.001) at $69.849.4 with an unleveraged perpetual future: position $139.70. After rounding, the risk to the stop including fees is $5.32 (0.53%).

	price	gross	after fees	after tax
Target 1 (½)	64,830.0	+5.02	+4.88	+4.24
Targets 1 and 2	62,320.3	+12.55	+12.27	+10.67
Цель 1 + б/у	69,849.4	+5.02	+4.73	+4.12
Stop	72,359.1	-5.02	-5.32	-5.32

Algorithm

TF=1d; SYMBOL=BYBIT:BTCUSDT; MARKET=linear; SIDE=short
SIGNAL: close < lowest(low,20)[1]=71072.5
FILTER: close < sma(close,50)=80584.6; vol=1.96*sma(vol,20) (min 1.2); (close-sma50)/ATR=-4.9; RSI(14)=24.5 -> MODE=rebound
ENTRY: place now: limit 69535.6..70163.1 (calc 69849.4), valid until 2026-11-18 (5 bars)
STOP: 72359.1 (entry + 1*ATR: level + 0.5*ATR = 72327.3 is closer than 1 ATR; ATR(14)=2509.7)
TP1: 64830 (50%, R/R 1:2); TP2: 62320.3 (50%, R/R 1:3)
MOVE_STOP_TO_ENTRY: after TP1
EXIT_TIME: 10 bars after entry (~2026-11-24)
CANCEL: low <= 64830 before entry OR close > 71072.5 before entry
SIZE: qty = 0.66% equity / (|entry - stop| + fees), floor to qty step 0.001; notional <= 100% equity
RISK: 0.66% equity per signal (group crypto: 3 signals, max 2% total)

Recommendation

Ждать: цена на 4,9 ATR ниже средней за 50 дней, RSI 25 — сильная перепроданность.

Technical analysis

Close: 68,281
Level: 71,072
ATR(14): 2,510
RSI(14): 24.5
Turnover vs average: 1.96
Distance from SMA50, ATR: -4.9
Signal: breakout_down
Mode: rebound

Entry and exit

Direction: wait
Market: linear
Entry: заявку выставить сейчас: лимит в зоне 69 535,6–70 163,1 $ (расчёт от 69 849,4 $) до 18.11
Entry zone: 69,536 – 70,163
Stop: 72,359
Target 1: 64,830 (1 : 2)
Target 2: 62,320 (1 : 3)
Time exit: 2026-11-24
Confidence: low
Status: open

Algorithm as JSON

{
  "tf": "1d",
  "symbol": "BYBIT:BTCUSDT",
  "market": "linear",
  "side": "short",
  "signal": "close < lowest(low,20)[1]=71072.5",
  "mode": "rebound",
  "filter": {
    "sma50": 80584.6,
    "vol_ratio": 1.96,
    "min_vol": 1.2,
    "z50": -4.9,
    "rsi14": 24.5
  },
  "entry": {
    "trigger": "now",
    "type": "limit",
    "low": 69535.6,
    "high": 70163.1,
    "price": 69849.4,
    "from": null,
    "valid_until": "2026-11-18",
    "valid_bars": 5,
    "session": null
  },
  "stop": 72359.1,
  "stop_rule": "entry + 1*ATR: level + 0.5*ATR = 72327.3 is closer than 1 ATR",
  "atr14": 2509.7,
  "tp": [
    {
      "price": 64830,
      "share": 0.5,
      "rr": 2
    },
    {
      "price": 62320.3,
      "share": 0.5,
      "rr": 3
    }
  ],
  "trail": {
    "move_stop_to_entry_after": "tp1"
  },
  "time_exit": {
    "bars": 10,
    "from": "entry",
    "approx": "2026-11-24"
  },
  "cancel": [
    "low <= 64830 before entry",
    "close > 71072.5 before entry"
  ],
  "size": {
    "model": "risk",
    "risk_pct": 0.66,
    "qty_step": 0.001,
    "ct_val": null,
    "max_notional_pct": 100,
    "group": "crypto",
    "group_signals": 3,
    "group_max_pct": 2
  },
  "risk_pct": 0.66
}

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