Signal · 13 November 2026

Strategy (MSTR) · downside breakout

цена на 4,2 ATR ниже средней за 50 дней, RSI 30 — сильная перепроданность

waitOKX · stocks

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MSTR-USDT-SWAP

Technical analysis

Nov 13 close: $109.78 (-4.3% on the day). That is 2.5% below the low of the previous 20 days ($112.59). Turnover is 1.5 times the 20-day average: the move is backed by trading.

Over the month: -22.7%. The price is below the 20-day average ($130.94) and below the 50-day average ($143.86).

The price is 4.2 average daily ranges (ATR) below the 50-day average, RSI(14) 30: the market is oversold, and a rebound often follows.

The breakout is in the direction of the downtrend: selling pressure persists.

Fundamental analysis

Company news — The Block, Nov 13: «JPMorgan reports 36% rise in Strategy share holdings and $540 million in BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF».

Company news — The Block, Nov 13: «Bitcoin falls to 12-week low, Strategy and Metaplanet to lose MSCI index membership, and more».

What to watch next

Confirmation: two consecutive closes below $112.59. Invalidation: a close above $112.59. Nearest reference levels: 20-day average $130.94 and 20-day high $147.56.

Recommendation

Wait for a rebound to the level: the price is 4.2 ATR below the 50-day average, RSI 30: deeply oversold; it is too late to sell into the move. Plan: sell via the OKX perpetual future MSTR-USDT-SWAP, low confidence.

Entry and exit

Entry: place the order now: limit in the $110.56–$112.59 zone (calculated from $111.58) until Nov 18. Stop: $119.70 (1.0 ATR from entry). Target 1: $95.34 (risk/reward 1:2): close half and move the stop to breakeven. Target 2: $87.22 (1:3). If target 1 is hit before entry, skip the trade. Time exit: 10 days after entry (around Nov 24).

Example with money

Capital $1.000 (≈ 82.400 ₽), risk per signal 0.66% ($6.60) — group limit for crypto and crypto-company stocks is 2% across 3 signals. Sell 0.79 MSTR (step 0.01, 1 contracts of 1 MSTR) at $111.58 with an unleveraged perpetual future: position $88.15. After rounding, the risk to the stop including fees is $6.60 (0.66%).

	price	gross	after fees	after tax
Target 1 (½)	95.34	+6.33	+6.25	+5.44
Targets 1 and 2	87.22	+16.08	+15.92	+13.85
Цель 1 + б/у	111.58	+6.33	+6.16	+5.36
Stop	119.70	-6.41	-6.60	-6.60

Algorithm

TF=1d; SYMBOL=OKX:MSTR-USDT-SWAP; MARKET=swap; SIDE=short
SIGNAL: close < lowest(low,20)[1]=112.59
FILTER: close < sma(close,50)=143.86; vol=1.52*sma(vol,20) (min 1.2); (close-sma50)/ATR=-4.2; RSI(14)=29.7 -> MODE=rebound
ENTRY: place now: limit 110.56..112.59 (calc 111.58), valid until 2026-11-18 (5 bars)
STOP: 119.7 (entry + 1*ATR: level + 0.5*ATR = 116.65 is closer than 1 ATR; ATR(14)=8.12)
TP1: 95.34 (50%, R/R 1:2); TP2: 87.22 (50%, R/R 1:3)
MOVE_STOP_TO_ENTRY: after TP1
EXIT_TIME: 10 bars after entry (~2026-11-24)
CANCEL: low <= 95.34 before entry OR close > 112.59 before entry
SIZE: qty = 0.66% equity / (|entry - stop| + fees), floor to qty step 0.01 (0.01 contract x ctVal 1); notional <= 100% equity
RISK: 0.66% equity per signal (group crypto: 3 signals, max 2% total)

Recommendation

Ждать: цена на 4,2 ATR ниже средней за 50 дней, RSI 30 — сильная перепроданность.

Technical analysis

Close: 109.78
Level: 112.59
ATR(14): 8.12
RSI(14): 29.7
Turnover vs average: 1.52
Distance from SMA50, ATR: -4.2
Signal: breakout_down
Mode: rebound

Entry and exit

Direction: wait
Market: swap
Entry: заявку выставить сейчас: лимит в зоне 110,56–112,59 $ (расчёт от 111,58 $) до 18.11
Entry zone: 110.56 – 112.59
Stop: 119.7
Target 1: 95.34 (1 : 2)
Target 2: 87.22 (1 : 3)
Time exit: 2026-11-24
Confidence: low
Status: open

Algorithm as JSON

{
  "tf": "1d",
  "symbol": "OKX:MSTR-USDT-SWAP",
  "market": "swap",
  "side": "short",
  "signal": "close < lowest(low,20)[1]=112.59",
  "mode": "rebound",
  "filter": {
    "sma50": 143.86,
    "vol_ratio": 1.52,
    "min_vol": 1.2,
    "z50": -4.2,
    "rsi14": 29.7
  },
  "entry": {
    "trigger": "now",
    "type": "limit",
    "low": 110.56,
    "high": 112.59,
    "price": 111.58,
    "from": null,
    "valid_until": "2026-11-18",
    "valid_bars": 5,
    "session": null
  },
  "stop": 119.7,
  "stop_rule": "entry + 1*ATR: level + 0.5*ATR = 116.65 is closer than 1 ATR",
  "atr14": 8.12,
  "tp": [
    {
      "price": 95.34,
      "share": 0.5,
      "rr": 2
    },
    {
      "price": 87.22,
      "share": 0.5,
      "rr": 3
    }
  ],
  "trail": {
    "move_stop_to_entry_after": "tp1"
  },
  "time_exit": {
    "bars": 10,
    "from": "entry",
    "approx": "2026-11-24"
  },
  "cancel": [
    "low <= 95.34 before entry",
    "close > 112.59 before entry"
  ],
  "size": {
    "model": "risk",
    "risk_pct": 0.66,
    "qty_step": 0.01,
    "ct_val": 1,
    "max_notional_pct": 100,
    "group": "crypto",
    "group_signals": 3,
    "group_max_pct": 2
  },
  "risk_pct": 0.66
}

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